May 2009

Twitter Heading to Hollywood?

How do you create a television show when you’re a Web-based communication tool that allows you to send messages of no more than 140 characters? If you’re Twitter, you find someone else to test the waters for you. Depending on who you believe, the popular online network that allows users to send ridiculously short text messages called ‘tweets,’ is either developing a reality series or putting a halt to one. According to Variety, Twitter is working with Reveille (production company known for The Biggest Loser and the U.S. edition of The Office) and Brillstein Entertainment (the huge talent management company) on the series. In a joint statement, the companies said the show would put “ordinary people on the trail of celebrities in a revolutionary competitive format.”

The show would feature players using Twitter to “follow” (aka stalk) their favorite celebrities in an interactive challenge format… sort of TMZ meets microblogging. Producers at Reveille said the show would be the first to bring immediacy of the site to TV. Didn’t interactive television say the same thing a few years ago when they touted how you could vote for your favorite on American Idol or pick the play the coach would run on Monday Night Football?

Before you get too excited about Twitter TV, the official Twitter blog, writes, “There is no official Twitter TV show—although if there were it would be fun to cast!” The company characterizes its deal with Reveille and Brillstein Entertainment as “a lightweight, non-exclusive, agreement with the producers which helps them move forward more freely.”

Why the quick denial? Turns out two of Twitter’s most prolific users, Ashton Kutcher and Demi Moore, have expressed fear that such a series would mean an unfair intrusion on their lives. “It’s all fun and games until somebody gets stalked,” Kutcher posted Monday on Twitter. “I really don’t like being sold out. May have to take a Twitter hiatus.”

Whether or not the reality series happens, premium content providers have Twitter on their radar. Some of the savvier networks have already been incorporating Twitter into their shows; we’ve seen it on CSI two years ago, as well as MTV and Current TV more recently.

If the microblogger can continue to branch out without actually doing much themselves, relying on third parties to develop applications and formats, then that will leverage the brand as well. That makes it grow. And maybe, just maybe, Twitter will make some money. Wouldn’t that be nice.

My Letter to SAG: Approve the Contract

Like a small Balkan republic wrestling with political infighting, SAG members continue to be locked in combat with one another over the studio contract proposal. Although SAG’s national board narrowly approved the deal in April, now it comes down for the members to vote. And a lot of them are not happy. You think Capitol Hill has knock down, drag out fights… you ain’t seen nothing yet.

So what’s the problem? With SAG members voting on the agreement this week, many actors feel betrayed. Hardliners want a better deal than what the other unions (Directors Guild, Writers Guild, AFTRA) settled for, notably in compensation and jurisdiction over new media. Certain members see dollar signs when they see content on the web and they want a bigger slice out of those series you watch on Hulu or movies downloaded from iTunes. Problem is, there’s not a lot of money to be found in the Internet and new media yet. Companies have tried to monetize content for the web but outside of Apple, no one has been very successful.

SAG has been negotiating over the last year without any success. In April, the SAG board finally approved an agreement that’s essentially what studios presented last year and what the WGA, DGA and AFTRA have already agreed to. It’s a good, not a great deal but for the first time new media was written into the contract. Best of all, it’s only a two year contract so all the unions will have a chance to renegotiate in 2011.

The sting of a studio victory is hard to swallow for many old SAG members. After all, they’ve had a winning streak dating back to the 1950’s. But after the pain of the Writers Guild strike and the failing economy this is the worst time to be fighting over the new media pennies of a two year contract. Members need to realize they’ve already lost wage increases of nearly $70-80 million after a year of failed negotiations. That’s a heavy price to pay for posturing. Especially over compensation on an unproven platform. Honestly, how many working actors have auditioned for a studio produced web series?

The biggest complaint I have about the whole thing is the time period SAG hardliners are complaining about - two measly years. Why fight about something so insignificant? The Guild isn’t locked up for an extended time period, making them free to renegotiate in 2011 with all the other unions. At that time everyone should have a better idea about new media and be able to accurately gauge how much it’s worth.

The cost of this yearlong debacle goes far beyond money. A bitter feud broke out between SAG, whose members appear in night time TV and film, and AFTRA, with members including daytime TV stars and radio personalities, splintering actor loyalties. During this time many actors switched to AFTRA. You reap what you sow and in the end the Guild lost money, respect and members for its arrogance.

Did the studios come out on top in this one? Obviously. They have beaten back all the talent guilds on most of their demands. They have orchestrated major job cuts. They increasingly monopolize the key release dates. They have cut budgets of films and TV shows and sliced gross participation deals. But 2011 is just around the corner and if the unions come together and negotiate as one they’d present a formidable foe.

So I issue a wake up call to SAG members. Wipe your bloody nose, vote “Yes” on the agreement and start planning for the future. The age of powerful dinosaur unions (think the United Auto Workers) is over. Today, extinction is just around the corner if unions don’t evolve.

The Lowdown on Upfronts

If it’s mid-May, it’s time for “upfronts,” broadcast television’s time to present their new show lineups to the press and advertisers. Although we anxiously await what shows return or are cancelled, the main purpose is to allow advertisers to buy commercial airtime “up front” of the television season. What’s at stake? Roughly $140 billion dollars of commercial time.

This year promises to be different with the lousy economy, however. That’s the prediction from Barclays Capital’s Anthony DiClemente, who says that a combination of factors (greater cable penetration, surge in Hulu and iTunes, in addition to the economy) will force all networks to sell less advertising, at lower prices, than they have for quite some time. Translation: DiClemente sees a 15 percent drop in upfront sales this year–the first double-digit drop for the networks since 2002.

Since most cable networks present earlier in the spring because they program for the summer months, the focus is squarely on the Big Four (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox). While there are plenty of returning favorites (Chuck survives!) and new shows that will potentially snag spots on our DVRs (Day One is our pick), the biggest news of upfronts have been the shows exiled to rerun purgatory… or ones that will be there shortly due to scheduling changes.

CBS
Sure to make headlines is The Mentalist, which will now air Thursdays at 10PM after CSI. The move is seen as a way for CBS to shore up its Thursday night lineup. The schedule also reveals renewal orders for shows like Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men, How I Met Your Mother, New Adventures of Old Christine and all three CSI series (nothing breeds mediocrity like success). No surprises there. One eyebrow raise was the Friday night pick-up for Medium, which was previously cancelled by NBC. Paired with The Ghost Whisperer it might have found its niche.

New shows include The Good Wife, Three Rivers and NCIS: Los Angeles, an NCIS spin-off in the worst traditions of CSI and Law & Order. Can we get an original concept please! The network has also acquired Miami Trauma, a Jerry Bruckheimer-produced medical drama set in Miami, as well as the new comedy series Accidentally on Purpose, starring Jenna Elfman.

Here’s a complete look at CBS’ fall schedule:

Monday: 8 p.m., How I Met Your Mother; 8:30 p.m., Accidentally on Purpose (new comedy); 9 p.m., Two and a Half Men; 9:30 p.m., The Big Bang Theory; 10 p.m., CSI: Miami

Tuesday: 8 p.m., NCIS; 9 p.m., NCIS: Los Angeles (new spinoff); 10 p.m., The Good Wife (new drama)

Wednesday: 8 p.m., The New Adventures of Old Christine; 8:30 p.m., Gary Unmarried; 9 p.m., Criminal Minds; 10 p.m., CSI: NY

Thursday: 8 p.m., Survivor; 9 p.m., CSI: Crime Scene Investigation; 10 p.m., The Mentalist

Friday: 8 p.m., Ghost Whisperer; 9 p.m., Medium; 10 p.m., Numbers

Saturday: 8 p.m., Drama repeats; 9 p.m., Drama repeats; 10 p.m., 48 Hours Mystery

Sunday: 7 p.m., 60 Minutes; 8 p.m., The Amazing Race; 9 p.m., Three Rivers (new drama); 10 p.m., Cold Case

NBC
It’s a tale of two TV seasons next year at NBC. With the Winter Olympics right in the middle of the season, the Peacock will take advantage of the Games by splitting its schedule into two halves. The fall/spring split will also allow NBC to make good on its promise to rotate shows in and out of time periods throughout the year.

The biggest news on the schedule is bringing The Jay Leno Show to prime time this fall. Although a huge asset to NBC, the move stinks of cost cutting. If Leno can get even so-so ratings it will be viewed as a success by the network.

Lineup changes include moving Southland to Fridays and replacing My Name Is Earl with SNL Weekend Update on Thursday (until new comedy Community moves in). New dramas Trauma and Parenthood will air Mondays and Wednesdays this fall, while shows like Day One, Marriage Ref, 100 Questions and Mercy will have to wait for midseason. Chuck will be back but not until February; fans and support from Subway made it happen. And Law & Order is back for a 20th season… amazing! It will tie Gunsmoke as the longest running scripted drama.

Here are NBC’s two schedules:

Fall:

Monday: 8 p.m., Heroes; 9 p.m., Trauma (new drama); 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Tuesday: 8 p.m., The Biggest Loser; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Wednesday: 8 p.m., Parenthood (new drama); 9 p.m., Law & Order: Special Victims Unit; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Thursday: 8 p.m., SNL Weekend Update Thursday; 8:30, Parks and Recreation; 9 p.m., The Office; 9:30, Community; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Thursday (after SNL ends): 8 p.m., Community (new series); 8:30 p.m., Parks and Recreation; 9 p.m., The Office; 9:30, 30 Rock; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Friday: 8 p.m., Law & Order; 9 p.m., Southland; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Saturday: 8 p.m., Dateline NBC; 9 p.m., Trauma repeats; 10 p.m., Law & Order: SVU repeats

Sunday: 7 p.m.: Football Night in America; 8:20, Sunday Night Football

Midseason:

Monday: 8 p.m., Chuck; 9 p.m., Day One (new drama); 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Tuesday: 8 p.m., The Biggest Loser; 9:30p.m., 100 Questions (new comedy); 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Wednesday: 8 p.m., Mercy (new drama); 9 p.m., Law & Order: Special Victims Unit; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Thursday: 8 p.m., Community (new series); 8:30 p.m., Parks and Recreation; 9 p.m., The Office; 9:30, 30 Rock; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Friday: 8 p.m., Law & Order; 9 p.m., Southland; 10 p.m., Jay Leno

Saturday: 8 p.m., Dateline NBC; 9 p.m., Southland repeats; 10 p.m., Law & Order: SVU repeats

Sunday: 7 p.m., Dateline NBC; 8 p.m., The Marriage Ref (new reality); 9 p.m., Celebrity Apprentice

ABC
ABC is looking to go back to basics and focus on one of their historical strengths – the sitcom. The fall schedule includes four new comedies (Hank, The Middle, Modern Family, Cougar Town) back-to-back on Wednesday. That’s a big change from last year, when the network entered the fall with just one comedy. With such comedic heavyweights as Kelsey Grammer (Cheers, Frasier), Patricia Heaton (Everybody Loves Raymond) and Courtney Cox (Friends), the Alphabet network has a good chance to capture the night.

Ugly Betty moves to Fridays, while Scrubs, Better Off Ted and The Bachelor will move in after Dancing with the Stars’ ninth season ends. Meanwhile, new series Deep End, Happy Town and V wait for midseason. Noticeably absent from the schedule: According to Jim, In the Motherhood and Cupid (for a second time!) along with Samantha Who? and The Unusuals.

Here’s a glance at the schedule ABC unveiled:

Mondays: 8 p.m., Dancing with the Stars (The Bachelor after Dancing completes its run); 10 p.m., Castle

Tuesdays: 8 p.m., The Shark Tank (new reality show); 9 p.m., Dancing with the Stars Results Show (Scrubs and Better Off Ted after Dancing completes its run); 10 p.m., The Forgotten (new drama)

Wednesday: 8 p.m., Hank (new comedy); 8:30 p.m., The Middle (new comedy); 9 p.m., Modern Family (new comedy); 9:30 p.m., Cougar Town (new comedy); 10 p.m., Eastwick (new drama)

Thursday: 8 p.m., Flash Forward (new drama); 9 p.m., Grey’s Anatomy; 10 p.m., Private Practice

Friday: 8 p.m., Supernanny; 9 p.m., Ugly Betty; 10 p.m., 20/20

Saturday: 8 p.m., College Football

Sunday: 7 p.m., America’s Funniest Home Videos; 8 p.m., Extreme Makeover: Home Edition; 9 p.m., Desperate Housewives; 10 p.m., Brothers & Sisters

* New shows on the bench for midseason include the dramas Deep End, Happy Town and V.

Fox
The network that’s aggressively promoted the midseason switch is back with a lineup that looks much like last years. Among the favorites returning this fall: House, sophomore success Lie to Me, Bones, Sunday’s animated comedies (Simpsons, Family Guy, American Dad) and in a bit of a surprise, Dollhouse. Also joining the fall is an additional season of So You Think You Can Dance, which has snagged a two-hour spot on Tuesdays, followed by a results show on Wednesdays. With Idol and 24 the cornerstones in the spring, newbies Human Target, Past Life and Sons of Tucson will look to help out.

And now for the bad news: Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles has been canceled. Great concept but it just couldn’t find an audience. Moving sci-fier Fringe to Thursday nights could be a bust. That’s not a night known for genre fare and powerhouse dramas on ABC and CBS as well as NBC’s signature comedies dominate.

The Fox Fall 2009 schedule:

Monday - 8 p.m., House; 9 p.m., Lie to Me

Tuesday - 8 p.m., So You Think You Can Dance (two hours)

Wednesday - 8 p.m., So You Think You Can Dance results show; 9 p.m., Glee

Thursday - 8 p.m., Bones; 9 p.m., Fringe

Friday - 8 p.m., Brothers (new comedy); 8:30 p.m., ‘Til Death; 9 p.m., Dollhouse

Saturday - 8 p.m., Cops; 9 p.m., America’s Most Wanted

Sunday - 7 p.m., Football OT; 8 p.m., The Simpsons; 8:30 p.m., The Cleveland Show; 9 p.m., Family Guy; 9:30 p.m., American Dad

The Fox Winter 2010 schedule:

Monday - 8 p.m., House; 9 p.m., 24

Tuesday - 8 p.m., American Idol; 9 p.m., Past Life (new drama)

Wednesday - 8 p.m., American Idol results show; 9 p.m., Human Target (new drama)/ Glee (returns in spring)

Thursday - 8 p.m., Bones; 9 p.m., Fringe

Friday - 8 p.m. Brothers (new comedy); 8:30 p.m., ‘Til Death; 9 p.m., Dollhouse

Saturday - 8 p.m., Cops; 9 p.m., America’s Most Wanted

Sunday - 7 p.m., Animation repeats; 7:30 p.m., American Dad; 8 p.m., The Simpsons; 8:30 p.m., Sons of Tucson (new comedy); 9 p.m., Family Guy; 9:30 p.m., Cleveland Show

Movie Marketing Update for Spring

Movie Marketing
Imax has declared that it’s not planning on rebranding its screens after getting some serious verbal potshots from people like Aziz Ansari, an actor on the NBC show Parks and Recreation after seeing Star Trek:

“These new IMAX theaters are really just nice digital screens with good sound, but they are not Imax, in that they don’t have the huge 72-foot (22-metre) gigantic screen which people would expect.”

Movie Merchandising
Speaking of Star Trek, it’s actually inspiring iphone applications. No word how successful they’ve been so far. If you want to go old school, check out these apps on Mashup.

Today, every sci-fi blockbuster is followed by a video game release and Star Trek is no exception. Star Trek: D-A-C on Xbox LIVE Arcade game is being released. We’ll check it out and let you know what we think.

Video Rental
From launching DVD vending machines in its stores to trimming expenses, Blockbuster Video is doing its utmost to stay afloat, in the face of staunch competition from rivals. New financing might help but the big problem is the business model.

Netflix is improving the way its recommendations system works. Users get better guidance and how the five star system works.

Product Placement
7-Eleven has earned the product placement coup of the year. The 24-hour chain is going to be the Terminator franchise’s partner in crime for the Terminator Salvation movie. There’s even a scene in the film in a store!

What’s MySpace Up To?

The appointment of former Facebook COO Owen Van Natta to replace co-founder Chris DeWolfe atop MySpace has numerous Web pundits buzzing over the same question: What does the social networking site have to do to rebuild its buzz and its business?

MySpace has been losing market share for some time now to Facebook. It’s also getting younger and narrower all the time demographically, as opposed to Facebook’s older users who have more disposable income for advertisers. Although MySpace is hardly small, if it follows the current course it could easily become another Friendster - a once dominant site relegated to an also-ran because it didn’t adapt to the competitive environment.

Given the explosion of Facebook and Twitter, News Corp. must be having a tough time now justifying its $580 million purchase of MySpace. “The company has a potential black hole in terms of profitability,” Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Michael Nathanson told the New York Times. Van Natta has been brought in to turn things around and while not a lost cause, there’s plenty of work to be done.

So what should MySpace do? Audio and video are expected to be even larger parts of the site’s strategy in the future but here are a few suggestions…

Become an Entertainment Company: Two of its most compelling features are social gaming and its well received new music offering, which joins together social networking with streaming tracks. Bring in entertainment insiders to keep the content fresh and buy or build more games so it becomes a destination site.

Focus on Mobile: The future of many online tools is mobile. Social networking is already a largely mobile phenomenon in other countries like Japan. Nobody has really made social networking work on mobile in the U.S. and MySpace could take control.

Build a New Platform: The interface and functionality of MySpace is old by web standards so perhaps a major facelift would do the trick. If MySpace wants to retake the lead, it needs to make a leap beyond Facebook, Twitter and everyone else. The only way to do that is to invest in a cutting edge version of social networking that blows away the competition. This is could be risky proposition since MySpace must maintain (and improve) the current version simultaneously.

Since Mr. Van Natta has not discussed a new strategy for MySpace, who knows what plans he has in store. Our advice – be bold or risk being a 2000-word Wikipedia entry.

Disney and Hulu: The Sorceror’s Apprentice?

Much like Mickey’s magic in Fantasia, studios are filling up Hulu… not with buckets of water but investment capital. This week, The Wall Street Journal reports that Disney joined NBC Universal and News Corp. as a joint venture partner in Hulu, the popular online video site that’s taking market share from YouTube. Disney views the move as a way to reach a new audience that isn’t coming to the network’s own website. The Mouse will provide Hulu with full length, ad-supported episodes from ABC, SoapNet, ABC Family and the Disney Channel. Some of the content will include top rated shows like Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, Ugly Betty, Scrubs as well as select Disney films.

It’s not an all-inclusive deal, however. The studio retains the right to keep certain series and does not have to make all episodes available. For example, Disney’s ABC division might put the trailing five episodes of Lost and selected old episodes on Hulu but continue to put the entire show library on ABC.com. And Disney keeps control of its most popular show, Hannah Montana, as well as the High School Musical franchise.

What This Means for Hulu?
Hulu gets a new lease on life with the Disney financing. Even with its incredible momentum, Hulu was on unsure footing financially. This allows them to become more entrenched and provide what consumers really want – a one-stop shop for video content. Should Hulu be able to strike content-sharing partnerships with cable companies, analysts say it could become an even bigger threat.

What This Means for Disney?
Not only does the deal erase NBC’s and Fox’s advantage over ABC, but it requires them to make only certain episodes from a series available on Hulu at any given time. The first taste may be at Hulu, but the full meal will still be on Disney-controlled real estate. It also puts Disney content on a wildly popular destination site where it will capture new eyeballs of those who expect content to come to them.

What This Means for YouTube?
Google-owned You Tube is under mounting pressure to add more professional content in order to attract more advertisers. But with Hulu locking up content from three of the six major studios (Fox, Disney and NBC Universal), they are running out of options. Sony has deals to provide a small amount of long-form, ad-supported content to both Hulu and YouTube. Time Warner has largely kept long-form content off the Web, and Paramount, which provides Hulu with some TV shows and a smattering of films, is unlikely to partner further with the online video site anytime soon. Viacom, Paramount’s parent company has a $1 billion copyright suit still pending against YouTube.

What This Means for Apple?
According to Business Week, the Hulu-Disney deal could test the viability of Apple’s pay-as-you-go iTunes download business. Why buy (or rent) an episode of Lost when you can watch it with a handful of 30-second commercials for free? Since Apple neither creates video content nor distributes it freely, it could easily get pushed out of online video altogether. One small consolation… Hulu is reportedly working on an iPhone/iPod Touch app.

What This Means for the Cable Companies?
Viewers are going to start wondering why they pay for cable at all, when HDTV signals are available as free, over-the-air broadcasts and there’s so much new, premium content available on Hulu. An interesting take was offered by Forrester analyst James McQuivey to CNET: Hulu could actually provide more than a blueprint for cable companies’ own premium video services; it could manage their online content relationships and distribution for them.

Bottom Line
The Hulu-Disney deal should come as a reminder that nothing stays the same for long. If other companies want to make the splash in online video, they need to act fast to keep their heads above water.

DVD Revenue Plunges

DVD revenue, a cash cow for studios since the mid-1990s, is showing signs of slowing down. In 2008, only two studios (Universal and Lionsgate) managed gross video revenue growth. Early returns this year show DVD revenue was down 14% in the first quarter of 2009, according to the Digital Entertainment Group (a home entertainment trade organization).

Even with increases in Blu-ray revenue (up to $230 million), the dollars are still not big enough to make up for the declines in overall DVD revenue. The higher cost and perceived lack of difference over standard DVDs has slowed the speed of adoption. Consumers often choose low-priced DVD versions over Blu-ray discs when they simply want a copy of a film. It’s only in the “must-own” new releases arena (Dark Knight and Iron Man) that the higher quality Blu-ray wins out.

While customers aren’t clamoring for Blu-ray, they’re not buying standard DVDs as much anymore. Standard DVDs revenue fell $470 million to $2.89 billion. That’s a $291 million gap between growth in new formats and the decline of the old. With DVD sales now accounting for 43% of total feature film revenue (according to Adams Media Group), studios will have to find other revenue sources to make up for the decline or cut costs.